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Exclusive poll: Turner, Garcia lead pack in
race for mayor
Poll uncovers front-runners in mayoral race.
HOUSTON -
Sylvester Turner and Adrian Garcia have emerged as the clear front-runners in
the first independent poll before the election that will determine Houston's
next mayor.
The KHOU – Houston Public Media
Poll indicates a clear divide between two tiers of candidates, with Turner and
Garcia well ahead of all other contenders to take charge at Houston City Hall
after the term-limited Mayor Annise Parker leaves office at the end of this
year.
Turner, the longtime state
representative making his third run for mayor, leads the pack with 16-percent
of surveyed likely voters. Garcia, the former Harris County sheriff, comes in
second at 12-percent.
The rest of the candidates in the
poll drop into single digits. Chris Bell, the former congressman making his
second run for mayor, won the support of 8-percent of surveyed voters.
Both Ben Hall, the former city
attorney making his second mayoral run, and former Kemah mayor Bill King, stand
at 3-percent. City Councilman Stephen Costello stands at 2-percent.
"There's two tiers of
candidates," said Bob Stein, the KHOU political analyst and Rice
University political scientist who designed the poll. "If you had to pick
a runoff match-up, it would have to be Turner and Garcia. And I don't think that
comes as any surprise."
In election years when there's no
incumbent, Houston mayoral campaigns are basically divided into two stages.
A large field of candidates run
in the November general election, with the two top vote-getters facing each
other in an inevitable December runoff.
What may come as a surprise in
this poll is the number of voters who've already chosen their candidate.
A little more than four months
before Election Day, half of all likely voters told pollsters they had already
made up their minds.
"The people who stay and
vote tend to be disproportionately older, Anglo, Democratic, educated
homeowners," Stein said. "These are experienced people who are doing
just what they've done before: Voting for Adrian Garcia and Sylvester
Turner."
Turner, Garcia and Bell share a
distinct advantage over the other candidates because their names have
repeatedly appeared on Houston ballots for more than a decade.
Costello's has appeared on the
ballot three times in the last six years as he ran for city council, but he's a
relatively new name compared to the front-runners.
"What you're looking at is a
campaign that in many ways has its roots in earlier campaigns," Stein
said.
Hall ran for mayor two years ago,
but he didn't garner enough votes to force Parker into a runoff. King has never
run for office in Houston.
None of the surveyed likely
voters chose businessman Marty McVey, even though his name was included in
poll.
Although named recognition may
play a role in their showings, especially so early in the race, the results
indicate many voters have already firmly decide about their candidates.
"It's worth noting that
among voters who told us who they were supporting -- had picked a candidate --
over half told us they could not vote for any other candidate," Stein
said.
The poll conducted between May 20
and June 21 surveyed 500 voters who had cast ballots in at least two of the
last three Houston city elections. The margin of error is 4.5-percent.
"These are voters who
clearly have picked their candidates," Stein said. "And there's a
high probability that well over half of them aren't moving. And they're not
moving even in the runoff election."
For more details on the KHOU –
Houston Public Media Poll, tune in tomorrow morning to KUHF 88.7-FM.
To allow us
to keep an accurate account of the funds raised by our group, the Sylvester
Turner for Mayor Campaign created a special, online donation page for
Women for Turner. If you would like to make an online contribution to the
campaign go to http://www.sylvesterturner.com/wft-donate/.
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